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TipTop’s 2011 Oscars Race Social Media Award Winners Before the Envelope, Please

TipTop’s 2011 Oscars Race Social Media Award Winners Before the Envelope, Please

In the final hour before the 83rd Academy Awards ceremony begins & the Oscar nominees walk down the Red Carpet, TipTop takes a snapshot of our Oscar’s awards leaderboards. We have been tracking Oscar-related tweets & extracting the sentiment around the actor & actress nominees and film & movie nominations since February 14th. To see what passions are flying around the actors, actresses & directors this year check out TipTop’s Red Carpet Passion Pies slice by emotional slice. For the 2011 Academy Awards, TipTop’s social media Oscar award predictions are:

TipTop Technologies@twittiptop TipTop Technologies
I used the Best Picture sentiment leaderboard http://ftt.nu/R09rB on TipTop for Oscar nominee tips to make my award prediction:True Grit
Best Picture Winner: The King’s Speech
I used the Best Director race leaderboard http://ftt.nu/LWmGN on TipTop for #Oscars nominee tips to make my award prediction: Tom Hooper
Directing Winner: Tom Hooper
TipTop Technologies@twittiptop TipTop Technologies
I used the Best Actor race chart http://ftt.nu/acItv on TipTop for Oscar nominee tips to make my award prediction: Jeff Bridges
Actor in a Leading Role Winner: Colin Firth
I used the Best Actress tweet sentiment chart http://ftt.nu/5ac01 on TipTop 4 #Oscars nominee tips 2 make my award prediction: Nicole Kidman
Actress in a Leading Role Winner: Natalie Portman
TipTop Technologies@twittiptop TipTop Technologies
I used TipTop’s Best Supporting Actor sentiment chart http://ftt.nu/m78RT for #Oscars nominee tips to make my award prediction: John Hawkes
Best Supporting Actor Winner: Christian Bale
I used TipTop’s Best Supporting Actress race chart http://ftt.nu/cVpsQ for #Oscars nominee tips to make my award prediction: Melissa Leo
Best Supporting Actress Winner: Melissa Leo
TipTop Technologies@twittiptop TipTop Technologies
I used TipTop’s Best Animated Film sentiment trends chart http://ftt.nu/mWDeI for #Oscars tips to make my award prediction: The Illusionist
Best Animated Film Winner: Toy Story 3
I used TipTop’s Best Foreign Film sentiment leaderboard http://ftt.nu/yFnxP for #Oscars nominee tips to make my award prediction: Incendies
Best Foreign Film Winner: In a Better World
TipTop Technologies@twittiptop TipTop Technologies
I used the Best Screenplay tweet chart http://ftt.nu/P9qyd on TipTop for Oscar nominee tips to make my award prediction: The King’s Speech
Best Original Screenplay Winner: The King’s Speech
TipTop Technologies@twittiptop TipTop Technologies
I used the Best Documentary race chart http://ftt.nu/vmt3q on TipTop for Oscar nominee tips to make my award prediction: Restrepo
Best Documentary Winner: Inside Job
To capture the passion of the Red Carpet fashion TipTop is also analyzing the emotional component of Oscars-related tweets & presenting how fans in social media really feel about all these celebrities during the Academy Awards ceremony & the after-party. Make sure you take a look tomorrow at our Red Carpet Celebrity Pasion Pies to see who was hot & who was a flop. Also read TipTop’s press release, “2011 Oscars Nominees & Fan Reaction to the 83rd Academy Awards Slice by Emotional Slice“.
Enjoy!
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Watching the 2010 Academy Awards & Walking the Red Carpet Via TipTop Social Search & Sentiment

TipTop
TipTop 2010 Academy Awards SpecialFor this year's Academy Awards, TipTop was the only place I needed to be at to get the most out of the entire 2010 Oscar's Celebrations. For some, seeing celebrities strut their fashion sense down the Red Carpet was the best part of watching the Academy Awards, and catching up on the After Party gossip & Oscar fashion trash talking was even better. This year it was fun & insightful to take a look at this glitzy event through TipTop's celebrity search results & Oscars leaderboard trend charts. Keeping up with the Red Carpet after party tweets via TipTop was also a trip, learning how Meryl Streep makes it all good,  wondering about the deal between Steve Martin and George Clooney, and what about that Sandy Powell outfit! We now know Cinnabuns are out & who the Worst Dressed & the Best Dressed celebrities were are and will be from Khloe Kardashian and the fashion police.

TipsLeaderboard_BestActor
From the rant to the results & key findings:
Overall, using social media data to predict the Academy Award winners based upon the sentiment analysis of millions of tweets related to the Oscar nominees proved successful in a number of ways. For the thirteen nominations tracked, TipTop's Oscar's Tip Leaderboard showed the winners 46% of the time. TipTop's results illustrate the ease of making predictions through proper semantic analysis of tweets; displaying positive & negative trends (Click piTs Leaderboard Charts) around social media topics like actors & movies, and extracting summaries (key tweets & top Web sites) from the data to provide insights into why a topic is trending. 

  1. In the case of the Oscar's winners, public opinion doesn't determine the outcome of the Academy Awards, as we saw in the choice of Sandra Bullock (Best Actress piTs Leader) over Carrey Mulligan (Best Actress Tips Leader). LeadingActress_PitsLeaderboard Shyam Kapur Oscar picks
  2. Using non-English title keywords as the basis to collect and analyze English language tweets doesn't provide accurate results. For example, The Secret in Their Eyes versus El Secreto de Sus Ojos skewed the leaderboard results for Best Foreign Language Film. Abhijit Sahay Oscar picks
  3. TipTop's prediction success for the seven "major" awards was much higher than for the other awards with less data to analyze.  The larger the amount of
    data processed, higher the likelihood that TipTop's prediction was right. Using TipTop to pick the major awards seemed to
    prove at least a 200-300% higher success rate than random Oscar
    predictions. Best Picture was particularly hard to get right this year because there were ten nominations instead of five to
    pick from.
  4. TipTop
    provided a powerful analytics tool that could be used by a human being
    to make high-quality predictions. There were many ways to use the
    analysis to derive predictions (Tip & piT Leaderboard Trend Charts, Tip & piT summaries, TipTop search results, etc.). If more people had made predictions
    based on TipTop using the analysis, some of them would have been even
    more successful than those who did.

82nd Academy Award Ceremony – 2010 Oscar Winners:

Trend
analysis of real-time social media as a predictive indicator is an
active area of research at TipTop Technologies, and we look forward to presenting
more insights 
into the relationship between sentiment trends and prediction in financial
markets, shopping patterns, and political opinion
like in our President Obama In-Depth Coverage (See TipTop's Blog post).

Greg
Martin

& the
TipTop
Team

 
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Posted by on March 9, 2010 in Uncategorized

 

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